Sounds illogical, perhaps even impossible, given the numerous the headwinds that the West has directed against the Russian petro-business since the beginning of Moscow’s “special military operation” in Ukraine, and especially in recent times. As far back in August, US President Donald Trump raised the “punitive” customs regime on imports from India to “plus 50 percent”, with the key rationale being that the purchase of Siberian oil (and the procurement of weapons) supports the conflict in Ukraine. (https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2025\/8\/6\/trump-imposes-25-percent-tariff-on-indian-goods-over-russian-oil<\/a>).<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the next round of tense India-US trade talks is scheduled for December 10-12 in New Delhi. (https:\/\/www.financialexpress.com\/business\/news\/us-trade-talks-to-resume-from-december-10\/4068354\/<\/a>).<\/p>\n On the other hand, Putin’s promised willingness of Russia to provide India with an “uninterrupted fuel supply” could stumble and to the latest package of sanctions that are being prepared by the EU and the G7. According to that announcement, the EU and the G7 are preparing to ban any servicing of the maritime transport of Siberian oil. (https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/eu-g7-weigh-ban-maritime-services-russian-oil-exports-end-price-cap-2025-12-05\/<\/a>).<\/p>\n How then – in addition to Washington’s ongoing dissatisfaction with Indian purchases (and even reduced) of Russian oil, and the announced new EU and G7 sanctions regime, could Russian oil move to petro-terminals in India?<\/p>\n Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi politely referred to Putin’s “uninterrupted\u201d offer. Namely, during the recent meetings with Putin in New Delhi, Modi pointed out that increasing the “connection” between Russia and India was a “main priority” for India, while he emphasized that “energy security was a strong and important pillar of the partnership between India and Russia”, but on that occasion he did not specifically mention oil. (https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/c4g482m3yyzo<\/a>)<\/p>\n As recently as Saturday, December 6, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar reminded of the “strategic autonomy” of the world’s most populous country. “I think we’ve always made it clear that we have multiple relationships. We have freedom of choice. We’re talking about what’s called strategic autonomy and that continues… I can’t imagine why anyone would have any reason to expect otherwise,” Jaishankar said. (https:\/\/indianexpress.com\/article\/india\/indias-freedom-of-choice-putins-visit-wont-affect-us-ties-says-jaishankar-10406690\/<\/a>).<\/p>\n How New Delhi will present that strategy in the upcoming trade negotiations with Washington, remains to be seen.<\/p>\n In the meantime, one might ask: On what premises could Putin now have based the offer for “uninterrupted supply” of fuel to India?<\/p>\n The answer could be here, between the lines, to look for the latest decision by Washington to remove the designation of “direct threat” from Russia to America. https:\/\/www.gmanetwork.com\/news\/topstories\/world\/968736\/kremlin-welcomes-end-to-direct-threat-label-in-us-strategy-report\/story\/.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.vujic-geopolitika.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/BL-NAFTA-I-GAS-INDIJA-7-12-25-Wikimedia-533x400.jpg\")
While before the Russian-Ukrainian war, India only procured about two percent of its oil from Russia, from the spring of 2022 it became the second largest buyer (after China), mainly due to the extremely affordable price of a Siberian barrel. As of June, India bought about 2.1 million barrels of oil from Russia\u2014defying a wide array of Western sanctions. That amount\u2014mainly due to strong pressure from Washington (including the October sanctions against “Rosneft” and “Lukoil”)\u2014could, according to stock market estimates, fall to around 600,000 barrels per day, i.e. to the lowest level since the beginning of 2022. (https:\/\/www.business-standard.com\/economy\/news\/russia-s-vital-oil-trade-with-india-falls-for-now-but-is-far-from-over-125120600074_1.ht<\/a>).<\/p>\n