Threatening signals from Tehran and Washington fuel the darkest premonitions of the petro-exchange, that a dramatic drop in the supply of oil to the world market will follow this weekend.
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The world’s petro-exchanges are now flooded with signals that the hostilities in the Hormuz Strait zone could lead to an “apocalyptic” deterioration in the further supply of oil to the global market, erasing, at least for now, any glimmer of hope that the conflict between Israel and the US against Iran could soon end.
“There is a ‘big, big risk’ that petro-infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz could be damaged this coming weekend…For example, Iran’s Kharg Island (area 20 square kilometres) (on the photo), which is a key export petro-terminal” — Bjarne Schieldrop, chief analyst at “Scandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) warned today (March 13)( https://www.rigzone.com/news/analyst_warns_of_big_big_risk_for_oil_over_weekend-13-mar-2026-183201-article/.
According to Schieldrop, “If (petro-facility on Kharg Island) is damaged, we would have a longer supply shortage, far beyond Trump’s announced of ‘two more weeks’ .It will make the spot price spike higher …”.
On this line of consideration of possible scenarios for the development of the war that began on February 28, the US investment bank JP Morgan on March 9, pointed out that “if the US and Israel seize Kharg Island, oil production in Iran would stall…triggering further attacks from Tehran on regional petro-infrastructure” (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-shock-worsen-should-us-israel-seize-irans-kharg-island-jp-morgan-says-2026-03-09/).
The storage capacities on the island of Kharg normally amount to about 30 million barrels: while there are now about 18 million barrels in the tanks there (a quantity equivalent to 10-12 days of export under more normal circumstances).
It is uncertain whether an invasion of Kharg is really being prepared, even this weekend.
Meanwhile, news is coming out of Washington that US Defense Secretary Pete Hegsett has approved a request from US Central Command to deploy a Marine Expeditionary Force, which typically includes several warships and 5,000 troops. (https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/us-israel-iran-war-news-2026?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1).
A day earlier, Mojtaba Khamenei, the new supreme leader of Iran, emphasized in a written message that he insists on a further “blockade” of the Hormuz Strait (https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-holds-above-100-stocks-030351605.html).
Kharg Island is 25 kilometres off the coast of Iran, and about 483 kilometres northwest of the Strait of Hormuz.
For the world price of oil, “apocalypse now” might start right there … this weekend.
