Launch is optional. As well as the disembarkation of troops. At first, a credible threat is sufficient, such as: “Right now we have a lot of very large, very powerful ships sailing toward Iran, and it would be great if we didn’t have to use them” (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/hegseth-tells-trump-pentagon-is-prepared-iran-2026-01-29/)
World petro-exchanges react to such a message from US President Donald Trump by lightning-fast raising the value of the risk-premium (7$-10$), almost at the same pace as they did earlier this month, first regarding the “Venezuela case” and then the “Greenland case”.
At an almost similar pace, today (January 30th ) the petro-exchanges sharply reduced the values of barrels (which otherwise rose to record highs the day before, primarily due to geopolitical reasons): “Brent” to around 70.03 US dollars, and light Texas oil WTI to around $64.70 (https://www.threads.com/@channelnewsasia/post/DUIcmBijts4/oil-slides-as-trump-signals-dialogue-with-iran-over-nuclear-programme-utm)
This time, primarily due to the announcement of the 47th president of the USA that, despite all the manoeuvres of the US naval “armada” in the direction of the Strait of Hormuz, he is still taking into account a certain possibility of … dialogue with Iran.
According to the Times of Israel, when asked if he had held talks with Iran in the past few days or if he planned to do so, Trump replied: “I have and I plan to.” (https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-confirms-talks-with-tehran-is-reportedly-mulling-raids-by-troops-on-iranian-facilities/)
Talks between the USA and Iran are already taking place somehow, somewhere…?!
How much can the world’s oil traders relax on this occasion? (In addition to all the other complicated factors that affect the price of a barrel at the moment: from Kazakhstan to Oklahoma…).
The answer is uncertain, after this month, a barrel of Brent—defying the expectations of Wall Street experts—achieved its biggest monthly jump since January 2022, and WTI its record high since July 2023 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-30/oil-s-year-of-the-glut-begins-with-an-unexpected-price-surge)
On Wall Street, many expected the price of a barrel of “Brent” to hover around $50 in 2026, now the bet is already widely open that the barrel will reach prices above $90.
What could prevent such a jump in the price of a barrel?
One of the encouraging signals of “missile descent” is the already mentioned indication by the US president Trump about …a dialogue with Iran.
The second, perhaps, is the restrained announcement by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi today in Istanbul about the road to … talks between Tehran and Washington. https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/irans-top-diplomat-plans-talks-us-129701337
“We are ready for fair and equal negotiations,” he said. “For such negotiations, arrangements must first be made, both regarding the form of the conversation and the venue, as well as regarding the topic of the conversation,” said Araghçhi.
Muscat? Istanbul? Ankara?… The world’s oil traders will have to set up new observatories for the movement of the “Persian rocket”…
