The longer the war in the Persian Gulf, the higher the chances for a massive global energy crisis
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What happens to the world price of oil at the moment when the petro-exchanges stop believing in the imminent end of the conflict between the USA and Israel against Iran (which broke out on February 28)? “Imminent end”, for example by the end of this month, by the end of summer, or by the end of this year?
The end of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, and especially the timing of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz (on the photo, a view of the strategic strait from the Musandam exclave, part of Oman), are of crucial importance for the price of the barrel—an extremely heterogeneous gallery of actors pointed out right from the beginning of “mini war”: From the Iranian National Guard (IRCG) to the legendary US bank “JP Morgan”.
“Get ready for (a barrel of) oil to cost $200 per barrel, because the price of oil depends on regional security, which you have destabilized,” warned Ebrahim Zolfaghari, a spokesman for Iran’s military command, in comments to Washington on March 11. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/combatants-mideast-war-trade-more-air-strikes-iran-clamps-down-dissent-2026-03-11/.
If the Strait of Hormuz is closed to civilian maritime traffic “by mid-May” (after the Iranian blockade “as a sign of retaliation”), the price of a barrel could reach the value of 150 US dollars, the bank “JP Morgan” estimated at the beginning of April). https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/irans-200-oil-threat-isnt-that-far-fetched-2026-03-17/.
Soon after, the Federal Reserves of Dallas, came out with an estimate that a barrel of oil could cost 167 US dollars, if the Strait of Hormuz remains inaccessible for energy exports from the Persian Gulf until the end of the year. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/dallas-fed-extended-hormuz-closure-180620943.html
On top of that, Kristalina Georgieva, executive director of the IMF, mentioned what could happen to the price of a barrel (and the world economy) in case the “Iranian war” continues in 2027 (https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/imf-chief-georgieva-warns-much-worse-outcome-if-middle-east-war-drags-into-2027-2026-05-04/).
In that case, the barrel could cost as much as 125 dollars, Georgieva estimated.
This assessment from the top of the IMF seems to indicate that in the Bretton Woods institution there is room for a dilemma regarding the potential length of the conflict in the region of the Strait of Hormuz. So, beyond the continuous “hot-cold” narrative of the member with the largest voting rights in the IMF…
Be that as it may, now there are frequent warnings and announcements that already from June there will be significant shortages of oil and petro-derivatives around the world: Martin Wolff, the chief economic commentator of the London “Financial Times”, on this occasion points out that “the energy crisis could just begin”. https://www.ft.com/content/fb290ca1-4fa0-4309-b406-8c850d0b2449?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
If so, what is the expected price of the barrel, the very next day?
